A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
